Category Archives: Iran Affairs

What is happening in Iran NOW …

Dec 30 2011

Iran and America play chicken in the Persian Gulf

According to a high-ranking Russian naval official, the combat potential of a US naval group that has entered the Strait of  Hormuz is more powerful than the Iranian Navy and coastal forces in the region. “The Iranian Navy’s combat resources are incomparable with the potential of the US aircraft carrier group that has entered the Strait of Hormuz and are incapable of opposing it” Deputy Navy Commander Adm. Ivan Kapitanets told Interfax on Thursday.

The aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis and escort ships have entered the area of an Iranian naval exercise east of the Strait of Hormuz.

Captain of a US vessel in the Persian Gulf who wanted to remain anonymous has said that in the event of war, US naval forces would “smash” the Iranian coastal installations within hours. “The Iranian Navy is coastal and can only protect the country’s interests in the coastal waters but in open waters they are no match for us”.

The Russian naval commander agrees with the US statement that “there can be no comparison between the fire power of America and Iran given Iran’s limited offensive military hardware.”

While painting a different picture, Seyyed Mahmoud Musavi, the Iranian Navy’s deputy commander for operations, said that the Iranian Navy was ready to confront foreign naval groups in a real war scenario, while the Iranian Navy held maneuvers in the Persian Gulf.

Despite the tense situation and strong rhetoric on both sides, Kapitanets believes that it is in neither countries strategic interest to go to war and will therefore show restraint.

“The US’s actions are certainly provocative, but the matter is unlikely to go as far as direct military confrontation,” he said. “Certainly, the situation in the region is very complicated, but it is unlikely to grow into military action.” The Iranians say the exercises are within the norms of international law and should be respected. “We are ready to confront the violators who disregard the security perimeters set for the drills in line with international law,” said Musavi.

Nov 30 2011

Iranian revolutionaries storm foreign Embassy in Tehran, AGAIN

History once again repeats itself but this time instead of the arch nemesis being America, it was the English whose Embassy was attacked and taken over by a group of radicals in Tehran, Iran sometime yesterday.

While 1979 is still fresh in my mind, as a political commentator and observer of history I couldn’t stop wondering, why the British Embassy, why now, and who were these people that instigated such an undiplomatic act that is nothing short of a declaration of war given that an embassy, according to codes of international relations, is considered part of a guest nations sovereign territory on a host nations soil.

There are two ways to look at this turn of event, one is from the Islamic regimes point of view that wanted to send a clear message to the West that the days of dictating its will on Iran are over and that with the backing of Russia and China as key allies (alternative trade partners) Iran is able to stand its ground and maintain its independence.  In which case this act, as undiplomatic and senseless as it was, intended to send a retaliatory response to the latest round of hard sanctions imposed by the West on Iran.

And the second point of view is that of a power struggle between the more prominent international actors over Iran, namely Russia, England and the United States.  In other words, one has to wonder whether the Embassy attack had Russians fingerprints all over it who encouraged this move as a preemptive strike to force the British out of Iran, or maybe it was the Americans who wanted to get back at the British for their role in the 1979 US hostage takeover, or could there have been other international state actors or non even none state actors in the mix who wanted to create a rift between Iran and England.

Time will tell but I can say this with relative certainty, things don’t look good in Iran and it’s not about to get any better and the Islamic regime is starting to feel the international pressure.

 

Oct 20 2011

US – Iran tensions are rising with a shadow of war in the distance

The tensions between Iran and the United States are reaching a boiling point. The recent announcement that Iranian Qods force planning an assassination on US soil is
indicative of how serious this confrontation has become and what remaining measures are left on the table for the United States.

3 years into the Obama presidency and his administrations niceties have yielded no significant results or breakthroughs in rekindling US – Iran relations. And so it is fair to say that the much anticipated “behavior change” strategy as advocated by many naive political insiders, pundits and lobbyists in Washington has failed.

And I say naive because without actually living in Iran for a few years it is very hard to understand that the counterpart sitting on the other side of the table, a) doesn’t care much about protecting its national interest (for Iranians) as much as it is interested in prolonging its reign in power (which means, sticking with the death to American the great Satan mantra), b) doesn’t seem to comprehend that the world has changed and that we are no longer living in a cold war era. And c) is steadfast on trying to exert its religious crusade and influence using an ideology that belongs to the dark ages (where for example, a women is valued half a man and that people who step out of line from their version of the faith should be flogged until they are unconscious, paralyzed or killed).

The good news however, for anyone who is paying close attention to the developments inside Iran, is that the new generation of Iranians, those I have met on the streets of Tehran, Shiraz, Mashad, Tabriz, Isfahan, Rasht, Yazd all, without exception, want a better way of managing their political, economic and social future, a future that is beyond this self-imposed theocracy.

Hard sanctions backed by international support of the people of Iran will bring about the ideal change, both for the international community and IRAN. The alternative is WAR and I do NOT SUPPORT IT. “V”

Feb 20 2011

A revolution should not be the end goal unto itself

The difference between successful revolutions and those that fail often comes down to how well an end game is planned and how clear the objectives are set, right from the start.

History has shown us that failed revolutions often set their sights short on merely starting an uprising without seriously contemplating on what manifestation and outcomes emerge, while those that are successful such as the American Revolution, have a relatively clear set of goals for the day after, once the dust has settled.

In 1979 the single common goal of the Iranian revolution was to oust the Shah and we all saw what transpired after, a series of events that set the country on a horrific path to a brutal theocratic regime that lived up to no Iranians expectations.

Under a politically charged and ideologically divided atmosphere Iranians of my previous generation rushed to replace one form of dictatorship with another and with such an understanding of politics the religious establishment wasted no time in eliminating the opposition.

31 years later, I hope we can draw lessons from modern societies to realize that politics is not a zero sum game where in order to win all other voices must be silenced.

Politics by nature is an exercise in persuasion and often than not no political party has all of the answers and hence there are elections to measure a political parties performance and there are systems of checks and balances put in place to protect the rights of the individual against tyranny of the state.

I hope and pray that in the new uprising the Iranian people consider the importance of starting a revolution with the aim of “institutionalizing” the pillars of civil society, first of which is respect for human rights, second, the right to form political parties that operate within the framework of a parliamentary democracy where every Iranians rights are protected. And third, the right to free speech as the basic conditions for moving Iran back into the community of nations with pride and dignity.

In the solitude of my home office I write this note first and foremost to myself as a reminder of why I should look to history and learn from it and second for anyone who is interested in what I have to say and if you have reached this far, thanks for taking the time to read my scrambled thoughts.

Sep 19 2010

World powers will once again clash on Iranian soil

Once again a showdown between world powers is taking place on Iranian soil.  But this time, there is no pro Western Mosadegh or Shah to deal with, but rather, a radical Islamic regime that is by nature antagonistic towards ideals of liberal democracy.

What Samuel Huntington was talking about in his clash of civilizations doctrine will soon take place on the streets of Tehran and the question on everyone’s mind is, can the West win the hearts and minds of Iranians by avoiding making past mistakes or will history repeat itself? 

The good news is that unlike 1979 when radical Marxists and Islamists won the battle, this time around my money is on Liberal Democrats winning the war.

Sep 17 2010

Mousavi is now under direct threat

The plan of attack on Mirhossein Mousavi, as predicted by various Iran experts, has finally come into effect. A group of militiamen backed by Iran’s revolutionary guard who in return take their orders from the Supreme leader Ayatollah, Ali Khamenei , yesterday, ransacked the opposition leaders office and confiscated more of his assets.

In addition to the imprisonment, tortures, beating and execution of many green supporters and protesters that took place after the June 2009 elections and continues to this day, this tactical manoeuvre came at a time when it was deemed necessary by the hardliners to send yet another signal to the green movement and in doing so prevent them from regrouping and regaining any form of momentum.

While this move can be considered an intimidation tactic to pressure the green movement into compliance now that the threat of an external attack on Iran seems dim and the war scenario unlikely, it can also be viewed as a final move on the part of the hardliners to consolidate power.

What stands in the way from this consolidation effort from happening is Mir Hossein Mousavi and his claim on last year’s rigged election that makes him the rightful president of Iran.

Thus, in light of the political developments in Iran that is creating greater rift amongst the rank and file of the regime and America’s sanctions having an impact on Iran’s economy, the hardliners now feel the need to eliminate any form of challenge to their legitimacy and a cause for instability  to the Islamic system. This means charging Mousavi and Karoubi with treason against the Islamic state or in an extreme case orchestrating an assassination attempt on their lives believing that their apparatus of coercion (the basij and sepah) can control public anger against any form of uprising.

Now whether or not this is a calculated move on their part is yet to be seen, but what is certain is that the political power struggle indicator in Tehran just moved up a notch to code orange making the likelihood of a revolution more real than ever before.

Looking at the issue on a larger scale of regional / global security I can also make the argument that a revolution in Iran has lesser overall cost than any other plan and would significantly reduce the threat of regional instability in the Middle East.

Sep 3 2010

Mohammad Mostafaie reunites with his wife and daughter

Iranian lawyer who defended a woman on death row by way of stoning has been reunited with his wife and seven year old daughter in Norway. Mohammad Mostafaie fled Iran out of fear for his life, having taken on Sakineh M. Ashtiani’s case and defending her in court. Her case has now gained international attention that once again casts a shadow on the Islamic regime, its judicial system and due process of law.

While this part of the journey for Mohammad has a happy ending, the untold truth is that a new wave intellectual capital flight and mass exodus of good men and women of conscience from Iran has begun. This vacuum and brain-drain, which the regime welcomes, is in fact leaving the country more securely in the hands of a hard-line group of radicals that have an ideology at odds with the free world.

Sep 2 2010

Iran’s economy on a crash course

While pro Islamic regime supporters, sympathizers and apologists try to present a rosy picture of Iran’s state of economy, national security and social stability the truth of the matter is that Iran’s social and political climate is so volatile and unstable that now the regimes upper echelon are sending their wealth and loved ones out of the country by the airbus load.

The latest indication of an emerging economic meltdown is the crash of the stock market that has been invoked by insider trading, poorly managed state run industries, and outdated companies that are underperforming and running at a lose. The only way to resuscitate Iran’s economy is to liberalize it and anyone who knows business 101 will tell you political security is the precondition for restoring investor confidence in the country.

Iran Risks Crash With Record Stock Market Boom Say Economists

Aug 30 2010

Iran pulls its financial assets out from Europe

Iran’s central bank has announced that the country has withdrawn assets of Iranian banks from Europe as a countermeasure against international sanctions over the Islamic state’s disputed nuclear program.

Most likely the money will be transferred to Singapore or a number of  South Asian country as a security measure.