Iran’s economy on a crash course

While pro Islamic regime supporters, sympathizers and apologists try to present a rosy picture of Iran’s state of economy, national security and social stability the truth of the matter is that Iran’s social and political climate is so volatile and unstable that now the regimes upper echelon are sending their wealth and loved ones out of the country by the airbus load.

The latest indication of an emerging economic meltdown is the crash of the stock market that has been invoked by insider trading, poorly managed state run industries, and outdated companies that are underperforming and running at a lose. The only way to resuscitate Iran’s economy is to liberalize it and anyone who knows business 101 will tell you political security is the precondition for restoring investor confidence in the country.

Iran Risks Crash With Record Stock Market Boom Say Economists

Iran pulls its financial assets out from Europe

Iran’s central bank has announced that the country has withdrawn assets of Iranian banks from Europe as a countermeasure against international sanctions over the Islamic state’s disputed nuclear program.

Most likely the money will be transferred to Singapore or a number of  South Asian country as a security measure.

Khamenei warms America and its allies

Khamenei warms America and Israel

Today in a televised broadcast on IRIB 1 that aired around 7:30pm Tehran time Ayatollah Khamenie addressed an elite group of leaders of the regime.   Amongst the upper echelons who attended the event were Ayatollah Rafsanjani, the grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini, President Ahmadinejad and the speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani.

The half hour or so speech focused predominantly on US  – Iran relations where the supreme leader made it clear that the Islamic regime has fundamental strategic differences with the United states.  To make his point clear he drew on the example of Israel’s right to exist where he said, “we do not recognize the legitimacy of Israel and think it is a false grown state in the Middle East and should not be there.”  He further added that “likewise we know that Israel opposes us and does not want an independent Islamic Iran to develop and expand”.

On the ideological front Ayatollah Khamenie touched on the term “global village” where he asserted that the idea of a global village the way it is defined by the west is nothing more than a lie. “This new global village or new global order is merely a myth.  It is a term that simply translated means that all countries should give up their rights and independence and allow two countries, the US and Israel, to run the world as they please.  On this issue we also have a fundamental difference”.

In conclusion of his talk, Ayatollah Khamenei tried to make the old case that the United States is an imperialistic state with a foreign policy objective to rule the world.  He stated that ”if anyone knows the United States will also know that the Americans are relentless in their methods to take what they want by force.”  However he made the assertion that America and Israel are at their weakest in 30 years and in all areas of political, economic and the social sphere and that hatred towards America has grown in many parts of the world.

Trying to make it clear that Iran will not negotiate out of fear he even took a jab at President Ahmadinejad when he said that “even if the president wanted to negotiate with the Americans our interest is not to do so under the current climate of intimidation where they, the Americans, expect us to conform to their will.”  He added that “This is American style bullyism. This is not deal making but rather negotiating with an agenda and pretext in getting their way.   This is not negotiation and the Islamic regime will stand its ground against this form of pressure.” 

What was alarming is the final point the Supreme leader made in reference to any plan of attack on Iran by America and its allies.  “If Iran is attacked then the war will no longer be limited to our boarders and I don’t think the Americans are that foolish.”

On the domestic front, and recognizing the impact of the international sanctions and the broken state of the Iranian economy Ayatollah Khamenei has ordered the control and better management of imports that has for the past 30 years hindered domestic industry and production. He also called for unity at the leadership level and stated that any differences should not create a rift in the Islamic system “nezam”.

Ahmadinejad’s regime and Iran’s culture

Iranian people are at odds with their fundamentalist regime

Iran’s secular culture and heritage is the complete opposite of Islamic teachings.  It has become very clear that the two do not mesh, let alone compromise.

In recent decades, it has taken Iranians a bloody revolution, a tragic war, and generations of lost dreams to realize that.

Now “experts” on Iran’s affairs are analyzing Ahmadinejad’s latest move to embrace a “nationalist” approach to Islam.

First, this is a clear sign of the imminent fall of the regime in Tehran. The regime in its entirety, by and for the clerics, is in danger from the sudden National Revolution that started in June 2009.

Second, in order to counter this enemy, the clerics tried to use an apologist or “reformist” movement called the Green Movement to stop the people of Iran from revolting against the entire theocratic dictatorship. However, this pathetic attempt, supported in recent months by well-paid lobbyists and apologists in the Western countries, fell flat on its face as the regime confronted an opposition tsunami. So now the “reformist” trick is being replaced by a “nationalist” deception.

This latest maneuver from Tehran provides a slew of opportunities for the “experts” to write more articles and give more interviews making them and their institutions appear knowledgeable and relevant. It is, however, very clear that the so-called “experts” fail to note or convey a very important fact that is, Islam does not recognize nationalism or pre-Islamic culture, history, and philosophy any where, thus rendering the term “Iranian Islam” an oxymoron.

Iran’s population which is overwhelmingly under the age of 30 — hip and culturally modern — does not and will not become Arabized despite the clerics’ efforts to radically shove foreign beliefs, language, and way of life down their throats via three decades of Islamic Republic’s propaganda in textbooks and well-funded multimedia. The Iranian youth have clearly demonstrated they do not want religion to play a part in its social and political makeup. Further, they have mastered the concepts of secularism, equality, freedom of choice, and the pursuit of happiness.

Iran has suffered for over a century during its struggle for modernization, because of the opportunist theocrats’ use of Iran’s glorious pre-Islamic culture of tolerance, assimilation, and individual freedom when it suited Islam.

When Islam, as a political and social ideology, is endangered then its followers can change their tune or hide their true beliefs in order to fool the enemy. This is an Islamic psychological warfare! It is a strategy that has paid off — at least in Iran, the first nation to declare a bill of human rights 25 centuries ago, now thrown into 7th century mentality.

The regime in Tehran is now faced with harsher economic sanctions which directly affect the already abused and battered population of Iran, threat of foreign military strikes, internal political and religious factions, and domestic terrorism. History has shown that when an ideologue ruling party is in danger and running out of options, it will embrace momentary nationalism.

A sense of nationalism, the recognition of a unique culture and language, has been a part of Iranian existence since at least 1500 BC. The mullahs who made it their trade to control the Iranian masses are fully aware of this fact. Furthermore, since the spread of terrorism with the birth of an Islamic Iran in 1979, the citizens of the Free World have now realized they are facing a real threat — global terrorism — and not just isolated, random incidents. The citizens of the Free World are also on the side of Iran’s National Revolution as they have witnessed the crimes committed by that barbaric regime against the Iranian people. Therefore, the Islamic Republic faces isolation and resentment from all corners of the world.

Those who were and are part of the regime in Tehran will do everything they can to stay in power even if it means re-instituting the Iranian national “lion/sun” flag that was so symbolically ripped from the hearts of Iranians after the 1979 revolution. Despite the physical, emotional, and financial anguish brought on by the mullahs, what Iranians will not forget is the meddling of Sharia Laws in their Constitutions — both the 1906 and the 1979 versions. What Iranians have learned — that apparently the so-called “experts” have not — is that when it comes to Iran, one is either a “Nationalist” irrespective of religious/philosophical affiliations or not! The regime knows the majority of Iranians despise it and will not rest until they have brought it down. Its assessment in this regard is correct.

Source:  Sheda Vasseghi is on the Board of Azadegan Foundation and is a regular contributor to WorldTribune.com on Iran’s Affairs
http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2010/me_iran0805_08_23.asp

The tit for tat begins … IRAN at a crossroad

Iran Pars Gas Field

European Union foreign ministers are poised to adopt tighter sanctions against Iran, including measures to ban investment in the oil and gas industry.

Excerpts of a draft declaration made public Tuesday show that EU foreign ministers are expected to approve the decision to adopt further sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear program and call on Tehran to resume talks.  

The new EU steps are also expected to target trade, banking and insurance, as well as transportation including shipping and air cargo.

News organizations say a draft text of the declaration urges Iran to “seize” the “opportunity to allay the concerns of the international community about its nuclear program.”  

The draft also calls on Tehran to agree on a date for talks with EU High Representative Catherine Ashton and the six countries involved in nuclear negotiations. The six countries are the U.S., Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany.

The EU declaration must still be endorsed by EU ambassadors meeting in Brussels this Thursday, but major changes are unlikely.

In Tehran Tuesday, Iran’s parliament passed a bill authorizing retaliatory measures against countries that inspect cargo on Iranian ships and aircraft.  

New U.N. sanctions aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear program calls on countries to inspect all cargo to and from Iran if there are reasonable grounds to believe items on board could contribute to Iran’s atomic program.  

The bill passed in Tehran allows Iran’s government to carry out its own cargo inspections against countries cooperating with the U.N. on this matter as part of their two-track strategy to contain Iran or force the country to the negotiation table.

The Reformers Race Against Time.

Is the reform movement DEAD under Mousavi?

An article I wrote on July 7th 2009 – What a difference a YEAR makes

On July 5th 2009 Mir Hossein Mousavi announced that he is filing papers to start a new political party. This move comes three weeks in advance to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad taking the oath of office and being declared the President of Iran, It is clearly a strategic move to a) force the radical factions within the system to retreat and b) to show the disenchanted people of Iran that the reform camp is serious about bringing pragmatic change to Iran’s political system. A system that has finally shown its true identity to its own people and to the world.

Now the question is can Mousavi pull it off in light of the new militarized climate that has gripped Iran with an iron fist and is adamant in the words of Keyhan Newspaper’s Managing-Editor Hossein Shariyat Madari “to blind and gauge out the eyes of anyone who is against the flow of the regime”.

It is certainly a race against time, but it’s a race that can be won for the following reasons.

First, throughout the world history has proven that when people mobilize as a collective force against those who abuse power nothing, not even their guns can stop the will of the people. And if anything, history is on Iran’s side as in 1979 the Iranians took to the streets in protest and overthrew the Shah.

Second, in an effort to form a political party, Mousavi is in fact creating a united front and building up a national network of supporters that up until now had no rights to form independent political groups. So even if we take the number of votes cast for Mousavi as quoted by the Ministry of Interior, a 12 million man / women strong network will still be powerful enough force to bring about change. And

Third, in using a political party as a backbone to streamline a national movement, Mousavi will be in a position to assert himself as a national leader much like what Mosadegh was in 1953 when he stood against the British. With a well oiled and well funded political machine with distributed centers of leadership it would be virtually impossible for the hardliners to confront and challenge the will of the people.

Will Mousavi be successful in forming this political party? We will know soon.

GODFATHER OF IRANIAN POLITICS DREW LINE IN THE SAND?

Rafsanjani the Godfather of Iranian Politics

An article I wrote on Sunday July 16th 2009

When watching last Friday’s sermon lead by Hashemi Rafsanjani I got the feeling that I had seen this act once before and then it hit me. This was a replay from the 1972 movie “The Godfather”. I was watching Vito (Don) Carleone of Iranian politics speaking as clearly as he possibly could first to his adversary, the very man he supported and helped put in power, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and second, to the military rogue elements of the Islamic regime that are out to dethrone him, that they have been forewarned. Rafsanjani made it clear that in the days and months ahead if they did not adhere to his wishes and the wishes of his people there will be consequences with severe and dire results.

Rafsanjani, in a diplomatic and carefully crafted sermon drew a line in the sand between what he saw as an ideal “Islamic republic” of Iran as opposed to his opponent’s version of an “Islamic” state which looked more like a dictatorship. By drawing from Islamic history, the prophet Mohammed, the Quran and scripts from Islamic scholars including the founder of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Khomeini he made it clear that no Islamic state can survive without the will and support of the people and any attempt to curtail this God given right is a breach of righteousness and social justice “edalat ejtemaee”.

One other great mastery in his speech was to remind the clan leaders and coup plotters who they were dealing with and by making reference to his biography, relationship to the leader of the Islamic revolution and his direct involvement and role in the 1979 revolution and its aftermath Rafsanjani made sure he shut the opposition up.

Clearly what Rafsanjani demonstrated on Friday was a) his authority on this regime and b) how he aims to play a pivotal role in the current crisis Iran is faced with. He stated that “from here on things will not be easy but by doing things right (and he made suggestions such as freeing the political prisoners and opening up the press) we can and must win the peoples trust back”, and from the hundreds of thousands if not over a million men, women and children chanting for his support “Rafsanjani hemayat hemayat”, the very people IRIB state run TV tried desperately to hide from its wide-angle shots, Rafsanjani achieved his mission. 

 

So, now that the godfather has given his ultimatum and has drawn a line in the sand between those political groups and figures who support him against the supporters (Cosa Nostra) of Khameneie who believe that the Iranian government draws its legitimacy from “the Almighty God” and not the people what can we expect? Well, your guess is as good as mine as to which way the pendulum of Iranian politics is going to swing in the days and months ahead but one thing is certain in that there is going to be a lot of bloodshed once the Iranian nation takes to the streets in the millions, again.

A Mother’s Nightmare

Our beloved Taraneh Mousavi like NEDA

An article I wrote on Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Now that world media has lost its focus on the “Iran story” perhaps in part because the drama of the 2009 election has died down I want to bring your attention, you, a member of the international community, on a news story that has just come out of Tehran. It is the story of Taraneh Mousavi who is missing.

From the reports I have read and obviously from her picture, Taraneh Mousavi was an attractive young women who like many young Iranians was disillusioned by the election outcome and the coup d’état that followed. On June 25th Taraneh was on the streets of Tehran near Ghoba Mosque where she was captured and detained along with other youth protestors, even though some say she was not involved in the street protests taking place in that area.

According to eye witnesses who were with her at the Nobonyad police station stated that within hours they were taken from the station to Hosseinieh Ershad (a detention center) by basij forces and from 4:00pm to 10:30pm they were interrogated. At 10:30pm all but Taraneh were released.

The following day Taraneh’s family who were unaware of her whereabouts recieved a phone call by one of the captured youth who was with her, informing the family of Taraneh’s location. The family franticly started searching for her but to no avail. Her father who was under severe mental and emotional stress from the ordeal collapses and is rushed home. You see, Taraneh was an only child of the family and daddy’s little girl.

It was reported that after a few days the family was able to find Taranehs car parked in Mirdamad on Daroukhane street but still no sign of her.

It wasn’t until last week July 8th 2009, when an unidentified man contacts the family and tells them that their daughter has been in a car accident and that her injuries include a severe tear in her anus and her uterus and that she was at the Imam Khomeini hospital in Karaj (an hours’ drive outside of Tehran). But when the family gets there the hospital shows no record of such person being admitted. However, one of the nurses did confirm that a girl with Taraneh’s description was brought in to the intensive care unit. The nurse further stated that when they brought Taraneh in she was unconscious and when they took her she was also unconscious.

Now the cover up story coming from the basij (the paramilitary plain clothed shock force) is this: Taraneh allegedly had had sexual relations outside of marriage and was therefore depressed about the situation, in other words, they are insinuating that she deliberately tried to commit suicide. This is a blatant cover-up of state crimes against innocent and defenseless citizens of Iran committed by perpetrators who now use religion as a tool for violence, fear and aggression with impunity.

This is truly a sad day for humanity but to get a sense of the injustice of this crime I ask of you to look at Taranehs picture, close your eyes for 30 seconds and imagine that she is your daughter, your sister, your cousin or best friend being savagely raped by beast like men. Her innocence has been stolen, her life taken, but what these so called men of God can’t do is erase her from history and from our hearts.

Life is precious and it is our duty to protect it. Join the cause for freedom and democracy in Iran and together we can stop such crimes from happening in Iran and around the world, for ever.

In living memory of Iran’s beloved NEDA

I clearly remember the seconds and minutes when news of NEDA’s death broke on to the blogosphere. I thought to myself, the evils of the Islamic regime have finally been exposed in broad daylight and this brave young women made it possible by giving up her life.

NEDA is truly a national symbol of Irans protest movement and its aspirations for freedom and democracy.

Today, what is also of great importance is how millions of Iranians, especially amongst the youth, have turned away and against Islam. This is of no surprise given the nature of the Islamic regime whose only mandate has been to manipulate religion for political gains. The fact of the matter is that in order to maintain absolute power this regime has used religion as a weapon of conformity, and for the past 30 years it worked. But wat was fascinating was how on June 12th 2009, the people of Iran sent a clear message to the regime and to the world, we want our political and civil rights back.

No doubt that with such self-awareness the Iranian people have set a new course for political change in the country and as Dr. Ali Ansari raised the question in the video below, for Iranians living in the 21st century can there be a place for a “GOD KING”? Clearly the answer is NO.

Is Iran-Russia Relations On The Rocks?

Iran - Russia Relations on the Rocks?

An American friend and former CMO of a fortune 500 tech company in Seattle once told me that a good company should never believe in its one bullshit when it comes to marketing. In doing so they would end up making bad strategic decisions and thus lose objectivity.

Someone should have given Mr. Ahmadinejad this advice. He is buying into his own “greatness rhetoric’s and grandeur” to the point where the coup regime has now gone head-to-head with its natural ally, the Russians.

Early yesterday at a rally President Ahmadinejad called on Russia to stop playing games and endangering its interest by siding with Iran’s enemies, meaning the United States. He called on Russia to act neighborly, and get this, he warned Russia of dire consequences if it did not.

In response, the foreign minister of Russia quickly called on Iran’s president to stop playing politics and made it clear that Russia is neither on Iran’s side, nor does it take sides with the United States, but rather first and foremost it has Russia’s interest at heart.

Too bad this strong worded message is being given to Ahmadinejad who doesn’t understand a word of what it means to be on “Iran’s side”.