Tag Archives: iran
German – US relations on the rocks?
Minutes ago President Obama and Chancellor Merkel held a press conference at the Whitehouse. While it was greatly anticipated that the two leaders would talk about strategic differences in approach with regards to Europe’s financial crisis and on Middle East affairs, the two leaders opened their remarks with high praise and admiration for one another.
The President, while calling the Chancellor by her first name on a number of occasions during his talk, made reference to the two countries strong trade ties and collaboration in industry while at the same time calling on Germany’s need to show greater leadership in European matters during these challenging times.
Likewise, the Chancellor reciprocated the high praise by giving credit to the United States for its support of Germany after the Cold war stating that, “I would not be here today had it not been for US leadership”.
While on the surface the two leaders choreographed the press conference well, behind closed doors it is no secret that the Chancellor has a very different approach to both the financial crisis in Europe and on matters of German – Middle East relations.
On matters of EU financial control,
The Chancellor firmly believes that many of the European countries in a state of crisis are fiscally undisciplined and lack the labor and tax laws that would make them productive and not to mention competitive in today’s global market place. As such in her view, any form of handout “stimulus” would be a disincentive to the political establishment of such countries to chance course by taking corrective measures. This is clearly in contrast to the American position that is more interventionist.
On matters of German – Middle East relationship
It is no secret that for decades Germany has enjoyed a special relationship with countries in the Middle East, namely Iran, going as far back as the days of Reza Shah (1930s) who used the Germans as a leverage against Russian and British influence in Iran. Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, Reza Shahs son, continued the relationship from 1945 to 1979, paving the way for many German companies such as Linde, BASF, Lurgi, Krupp, Siemens, ZF Friedrichshafen, Mercedes, Volkswagen and MAN to enter the lucrative Iranian market.
But what made this relationship even more exclusive was what happened after the 1979 Islamic revolution and the overthrow of the Shah, who was considered a US ally.
From 1979 to this day most Western countries who were considered US allies, including the US, were shutout of the Iranian market except for Germany and in the absence of any serious rival this bilateral relationship developed into a multibillion dollar one way German export to Iran business relationship.
Knowing full well what endorsing sanctions on Iran would do to Germany and German companies who rely on this trade to keep their businesses profitable and their staff employed, the Chancellor’s position is difficult. On the one hand she does not want to lose the relationship her country has with the United States while on the other hand the Iran market is a vital German economic interest.
On matters of the Palestinians right to statehood Germany has made it clear that it support a two state solution but it has also grown weary of Israel’s continued violations and unauthorized land grab of Palestinian territories. Furthermore, in light of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s speech a few weeks ago in Congress denouncing any resumption of talks based on the 1967 boards the Germans have voiced concern over Israel’s genuine intentions.
In my view, and in light of Germany’s strategic interests in Iran, Germany will use its Palestinian card to appease the US and Israel at the United Nations should the Palestinians unilaterally declare statehood and in doing so convince the Americans to back off from calling for further sanctions on Iran.
The fact of the matter is that 40% of Iran’s trade balance comes from its relationship with Europe of which 29% is with Germany.
In February of 2006, the President of the German-Iranian Chamber of Commerce in Tehran, Michael Tockuss said “some two thirds of Iranian industry relies on German engineering products and spare parts” and not to mention that the value of trade between Tehran and Berlin has increased to nearly 4.7 billion Euros in 2010. This translates into 50,000 German jobs who rely on strong German – Iran relations and the Chancellor know this.
we are in times of a moral dilemma, yet again …
There are moments in our lives, and they are few, where our humanity comes face to face with a moral dilemma that challenges our soul, as individuals and as a people.
In 1940 during World War II humanity was challenged in Auschwitz. In Africa we faced a dilemma with the genocide in Sierra Leone, in Asia the massacre in Burma tested us, and today we face a new dilemma, the radicalization of the Middle East with an ideology that if left unaccounted could very well lead to the spread of a political system and a way of life that is at odds with the very nature of what it means to be born free.
And as we face this new dilemma we have one of two choices. Either we can be indifferent and stay silent in fear of persecution, ridicule or involvement beyond our comfort zone, or alternatively, we can stand on principles, show moral indignation and become engaged.
Having said that, taking on such a challenge often comes at a price but it is only in such circumstances that we realize who we are as individuals and what we value as a people.
And so it is needless to say that the natural state of (wo)man is to live in freedom from tyranny and oppression and with all the legal and moral rights on our side it is our duty to face such a challenge head on before it is too late.
A revolution should not be the end goal unto itself
The difference between successful revolutions and those that fail often comes down to how well an end game is planned and how clear the objectives are set, right from the start.
History has shown us that failed revolutions often set their sights short on merely starting an uprising without seriously contemplating on what manifestation and outcomes emerge, while those that are successful such as the American Revolution, have a relatively clear set of goals for the day after, once the dust has settled.
In 1979 the single common goal of the Iranian revolution was to oust the Shah and we all saw what transpired after, a series of events that set the country on a horrific path to a brutal theocratic regime that lived up to no Iranians expectations.
Under a politically charged and ideologically divided atmosphere Iranians of my previous generation rushed to replace one form of dictatorship with another and with such an understanding of politics the religious establishment wasted no time in eliminating the opposition.
31 years later, I hope we can draw lessons from modern societies to realize that politics is not a zero sum game where in order to win all other voices must be silenced.
Politics by nature is an exercise in persuasion and often than not no political party has all of the answers and hence there are elections to measure a political parties performance and there are systems of checks and balances put in place to protect the rights of the individual against tyranny of the state.
I hope and pray that in the new uprising the Iranian people consider the importance of starting a revolution with the aim of “institutionalizing” the pillars of civil society, first of which is respect for human rights, second, the right to form political parties that operate within the framework of a parliamentary democracy where every Iranians rights are protected. And third, the right to free speech as the basic conditions for moving Iran back into the community of nations with pride and dignity.
In the solitude of my home office I write this note first and foremost to myself as a reminder of why I should look to history and learn from it and second for anyone who is interested in what I have to say and if you have reached this far, thanks for taking the time to read my scrambled thoughts.
3 Oil companies tell U.S. we still have business in Iran
European oil majors resisted pressure from the United States to abandon all Iranian activities, saying they would continue buying Iranian crude and exit the country only upon expiry of existing contracts.
* Total still purchasing Iranian crude
* Statoil still providing technical assistance on gas field
* ENI says to exit Iran upon contracts expiry
* Shell says purchases of Iranian crude still legal
President Ahmadinejad calls capitalism a failed economic model
Anyone who has lived in Iran, and I have from the year 2000, will tell you that the state of the country’s economy and social climate is in serious turmoil.
For the past 30 years Iran’s resources have been depleted due in part to under investment and mismanagement, but more importantly, due to lost opportunities in bridging the country with a global economy that could have in return catapulted Iran to a far greater position on the world stage than its current standing today.
But beyond economics what has most Iranians in fury is the regimes rigidity and inflexibility on a political ideology that is out of step with the 21st century. As a benchmark one can simply look at the 240,000-a-year talent pool leaving the country en mass since Mahmoud Ahmadinejad took office as president in 2005.
And so, while Ahmadinejad attempts to offer a new geo-political prescription to a new world order and spends most of his time pointing finger at the United States and Europe as the main culprits of all economic and political ills of the globe, one has to ask him why is it that under his leadership Iran is on the verge of revolt?
What the president doesn’t seem to realize is that the worlds economic and political experts know that if the regime in Tehran takes away subsidies on key products such as petroleum, electricity and food essentials Iran’s economy will collapse.
Already the rental rates and income inbalance is breaking people’s backs, especially the young. Bank loans, which a lot of businesses are indebted with, have a 25 percent interest rate which means no SME in the country is profitable and those that are have created an underground economy by hiding their revenues from the state out of necessity.
In short, Ahmadinejad has a serious credibility problem and I am bewildered why world media is unable to ask the Iranian president the right set of question that brings the spotlight on his broken ideology and hot air rhetoric’s. What is the world media afraid of?
Mousavi is now under direct threat
The plan of attack on Mirhossein Mousavi, as predicted by various Iran experts, has finally come into effect. A group of militiamen backed by Iran’s revolutionary guard who in return take their orders from the Supreme leader Ayatollah, Ali Khamenei , yesterday, ransacked the opposition leaders office and confiscated more of his assets.
In addition to the imprisonment, tortures, beating and execution of many green supporters and protesters that took place after the June 2009 elections and continues to this day, this tactical manoeuvre came at a time when it was deemed necessary by the hardliners to send yet another signal to the green movement and in doing so prevent them from regrouping and regaining any form of momentum.
While this move can be considered an intimidation tactic to pressure the green movement into compliance now that the threat of an external attack on Iran seems dim and the war scenario unlikely, it can also be viewed as a final move on the part of the hardliners to consolidate power.
What stands in the way from this consolidation effort from happening is Mir Hossein Mousavi and his claim on last year’s rigged election that makes him the rightful president of Iran.
Thus, in light of the political developments in Iran that is creating greater rift amongst the rank and file of the regime and America’s sanctions having an impact on Iran’s economy, the hardliners now feel the need to eliminate any form of challenge to their legitimacy and a cause for instability to the Islamic system. This means charging Mousavi and Karoubi with treason against the Islamic state or in an extreme case orchestrating an assassination attempt on their lives believing that their apparatus of coercion (the basij and sepah) can control public anger against any form of uprising.
Now whether or not this is a calculated move on their part is yet to be seen, but what is certain is that the political power struggle indicator in Tehran just moved up a notch to code orange making the likelihood of a revolution more real than ever before.
Looking at the issue on a larger scale of regional / global security I can also make the argument that a revolution in Iran has lesser overall cost than any other plan and would significantly reduce the threat of regional instability in the Middle East.
Mounting US pressure on UAE to curb trade ties with IRAN
The US is turning up the heat on United Arab Emirates banks and companies as it seeks to impose more comprehensive sanctions against Iran. Stuart Levey, under-secretary for terrorism and financial intelligence at the US Treasury, met UAE financiers last month during a trip to the Middle East to brief them on strategies to comply with tougher United Nations sanctions.
Yet what the United States doesn’t seem to realize is the historic bond between the two countries, specifically between Dubai and Iran, given that most UAE residence have Iranian heritage and roots that go back decades before the UAE was even established as a country in 1971. For this reason alone it is very hard for the UAE to live up to United States expectations given the connection to Iran.
Mohammad Mostafaie reunites with his wife and daughter
Iranian lawyer who defended a woman on death row by way of stoning has been reunited with his wife and seven year old daughter in Norway. Mohammad Mostafaie fled Iran out of fear for his life, having taken on Sakineh M. Ashtiani’s case and defending her in court. Her case has now gained international attention that once again casts a shadow on the Islamic regime, its judicial system and due process of law.
While this part of the journey for Mohammad has a happy ending, the untold truth is that a new wave intellectual capital flight and mass exodus of good men and women of conscience from Iran has begun. This vacuum and brain-drain, which the regime welcomes, is in fact leaving the country more securely in the hands of a hard-line group of radicals that have an ideology at odds with the free world.
Iran’s economy on a crash course
While pro Islamic regime supporters, sympathizers and apologists try to present a rosy picture of Iran’s state of economy, national security and social stability the truth of the matter is that Iran’s social and political climate is so volatile and unstable that now the regimes upper echelon are sending their wealth and loved ones out of the country by the airbus load.
The latest indication of an emerging economic meltdown is the crash of the stock market that has been invoked by insider trading, poorly managed state run industries, and outdated companies that are underperforming and running at a lose. The only way to resuscitate Iran’s economy is to liberalize it and anyone who knows business 101 will tell you political security is the precondition for restoring investor confidence in the country.
Iran Risks Crash With Record Stock Market Boom Say Economists
