Tag Archives: rafsanjani

Aug 27 2010

Khamenei warms America and its allies

Khamenei warms America and Israel

Today in a televised broadcast on IRIB 1 that aired around 7:30pm Tehran time Ayatollah Khamenie addressed an elite group of leaders of the regime.   Amongst the upper echelons who attended the event were Ayatollah Rafsanjani, the grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini, President Ahmadinejad and the speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani.

The half hour or so speech focused predominantly on US  – Iran relations where the supreme leader made it clear that the Islamic regime has fundamental strategic differences with the United states.  To make his point clear he drew on the example of Israel’s right to exist where he said, “we do not recognize the legitimacy of Israel and think it is a false grown state in the Middle East and should not be there.”  He further added that “likewise we know that Israel opposes us and does not want an independent Islamic Iran to develop and expand”.

On the ideological front Ayatollah Khamenie touched on the term “global village” where he asserted that the idea of a global village the way it is defined by the west is nothing more than a lie. “This new global village or new global order is merely a myth.  It is a term that simply translated means that all countries should give up their rights and independence and allow two countries, the US and Israel, to run the world as they please.  On this issue we also have a fundamental difference”.

In conclusion of his talk, Ayatollah Khamenei tried to make the old case that the United States is an imperialistic state with a foreign policy objective to rule the world.  He stated that ”if anyone knows the United States will also know that the Americans are relentless in their methods to take what they want by force.”  However he made the assertion that America and Israel are at their weakest in 30 years and in all areas of political, economic and the social sphere and that hatred towards America has grown in many parts of the world.

Trying to make it clear that Iran will not negotiate out of fear he even took a jab at President Ahmadinejad when he said that “even if the president wanted to negotiate with the Americans our interest is not to do so under the current climate of intimidation where they, the Americans, expect us to conform to their will.”  He added that “This is American style bullyism. This is not deal making but rather negotiating with an agenda and pretext in getting their way.   This is not negotiation and the Islamic regime will stand its ground against this form of pressure.” 

What was alarming is the final point the Supreme leader made in reference to any plan of attack on Iran by America and its allies.  “If Iran is attacked then the war will no longer be limited to our boarders and I don’t think the Americans are that foolish.”

On the domestic front, and recognizing the impact of the international sanctions and the broken state of the Iranian economy Ayatollah Khamenei has ordered the control and better management of imports that has for the past 30 years hindered domestic industry and production. He also called for unity at the leadership level and stated that any differences should not create a rift in the Islamic system “nezam”.

Jun 11 2010

GODFATHER OF IRANIAN POLITICS DREW LINE IN THE SAND?

Rafsanjani the Godfather of Iranian Politics

An article I wrote on Sunday July 16th 2009

When watching last Friday’s sermon lead by Hashemi Rafsanjani I got the feeling that I had seen this act once before and then it hit me. This was a replay from the 1972 movie “The Godfather”. I was watching Vito (Don) Carleone of Iranian politics speaking as clearly as he possibly could first to his adversary, the very man he supported and helped put in power, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and second, to the military rogue elements of the Islamic regime that are out to dethrone him, that they have been forewarned. Rafsanjani made it clear that in the days and months ahead if they did not adhere to his wishes and the wishes of his people there will be consequences with severe and dire results.

Rafsanjani, in a diplomatic and carefully crafted sermon drew a line in the sand between what he saw as an ideal “Islamic republic” of Iran as opposed to his opponent’s version of an “Islamic” state which looked more like a dictatorship. By drawing from Islamic history, the prophet Mohammed, the Quran and scripts from Islamic scholars including the founder of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Khomeini he made it clear that no Islamic state can survive without the will and support of the people and any attempt to curtail this God given right is a breach of righteousness and social justice “edalat ejtemaee”.

One other great mastery in his speech was to remind the clan leaders and coup plotters who they were dealing with and by making reference to his biography, relationship to the leader of the Islamic revolution and his direct involvement and role in the 1979 revolution and its aftermath Rafsanjani made sure he shut the opposition up.

Clearly what Rafsanjani demonstrated on Friday was a) his authority on this regime and b) how he aims to play a pivotal role in the current crisis Iran is faced with. He stated that “from here on things will not be easy but by doing things right (and he made suggestions such as freeing the political prisoners and opening up the press) we can and must win the peoples trust back”, and from the hundreds of thousands if not over a million men, women and children chanting for his support “Rafsanjani hemayat hemayat”, the very people IRIB state run TV tried desperately to hide from its wide-angle shots, Rafsanjani achieved his mission. 

 

So, now that the godfather has given his ultimatum and has drawn a line in the sand between those political groups and figures who support him against the supporters (Cosa Nostra) of Khameneie who believe that the Iranian government draws its legitimacy from “the Almighty God” and not the people what can we expect? Well, your guess is as good as mine as to which way the pendulum of Iranian politics is going to swing in the days and months ahead but one thing is certain in that there is going to be a lot of bloodshed once the Iranian nation takes to the streets in the millions, again.

May 16 2010

The upcoming anniversary of the June 2009 elections in Iran, what’s next?

Irans Green Movement Lives ON

Coming up to the anniversary of the June 2009 Iranian elections the coup regime in Tehran has once again gone on the attack against the reform leaders in an attempt to prevent them from taking any action that could once again rally the people onto the streets of Iran next month. 175 members of parliament have gone as far as signing a petition to bring Mousavi and Karoubi to trial and the second rank at the judiciary has also called for a trial.

While there are some activists within the green movement who want Mosuavi and Karoubi to play a final showdown scenario with the regime such a move in my opinion is a) premature, given that the nation is not quite ready for such a collective move, and b) the purpose of the green movement is to paralyze the regime into submission to the will of the people and not to overturn it at phase one. 

For this reason the movement leaders, Mousavi, Karoubi, Khatami and Rafsanjani call for calm and are doing the utmost to make this transition as peaceful as possible, even though they know that at some point violence will erupt.

May 12 2010

Mesbah Yazdi’s Danger for Khamenei

yatollah eshbah Yazdi a threat to the republic

By Shervin Omidvar 

A senior member of the reformist clerical group Assembly of Combatant Clergy [Majma Rohaniyoon Mobarez] Ali Akbar Mohtashamipour, warned about the increasing power of hardline cleric Mohammad-Taghi Mesbah Yazdi and his disciples, noting, “The Mesbahiyeh cult, which I have been warning about for years, is not sitting idle; this is a very dangerous and violent group that won’t show mercy to anyone, neither to the Imam, nor to ayatollah Khamenei. They are using him as a tool to reach their goals, and when they accomplish that, they would destroy the supreme leader too.”

He added, “I am certain that Mr. Mesbah Yazdi does not believe in the supreme leader. Mr. Mesbah did not believe in the Imam, and after the revolution, he was not present in the war, or in other positions to help the Imam. Why do you think he believes in ayatollah Khamenei?”

This is Ali Akbar Mohtashamipour’s third warning about the influence of the “Mesbahiyeh cult” in Iranian power structure. He had warned before in 1385 and 1387 about the gradual infiltration of Meshab Yazdi and his close disciples into sensitive power centers in Iran.

Mohtashamipour, who was himself close to revolutionary founder ayatollah Khomeini, has accused Mesbah of seeking to strip the Islamic republic from its republican core and “popular sovereignty.” Describing the Mesbahiyeh cult’s views, he said, “The Mesbahiyeh cult is extremely restrictive against women, the youth, students, journalists, and internal politicians. We don’t see anytime during Imam’s life when he accused the Iranian youth of being heretics; or to refer to students as secular, materialistic, and egotistical.”

Mohtashamipour revealed that he has warned the Islamic Republic supreme leader ayatollah Khamenei during a face-to-face meeting about Mesbah Yazdi’s increasing influence, adding, “I still believe that the danger posed by the Mesbahiyeh cult for the revolution and the Islamic Republic regime is much stronger than the one posed by many other groups and factions. God forbid, one day it will official wage war against the Islamic Republic and the person of the supreme leader.”

Despite opposition from many figures close to ayatollah Khomeini, including ayatollah Tavassoli, Mehdi Karoubi, Mousavi-Tabrizi, Mohammad Khatami, and even verbal clashes between Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mesbah Yazdi over the latter’s promotion of violence against political opponents, and Mesbah Yazdi’s clear remarks about the insignificance of popular votes and the divine sovereignty of the supreme leader, Mesbah Yazdi’s disciples have advanced so far into the Iranian power structure that his supporters and former students now occupy sensitive posts, particularly in the Islamic Passdaran Revolutionary Guards Corps, Basij and the police.

Source http://www.roozonline.com/english/news/newsitem/article/2010/may/12//mesbah-yazdis-danger-for-khamenei.html

Mar 15 2010

Is there a spat between Ahmadinejad and Khamenei or is this yet another PR stunt within the Islamic regime?

An article written in the Tehran Bureau on March 14th suggestes that there is a real spat brewing between the supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.   Could this be true, has the honeymoon period between the two men finally come to an end, and if so, whom or should I say which faction is standing in the wings ready to replace the president? 

Looking at the dynamics of the current political situation from a holistic perspective and not falling for this good cop bad cop routine that looks more and more like a bad soap opera coming out of Tehran I doubt there is a rift at all and here are my reasons.

First, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is a hardliner himself and a former sepah member.  He is a man that opposes liberal ideals of any kind such as, but not limited to, teaching music or social sciences at universities, the internet, free speech, or political association, and with this ideological view he knows full well that to stay in power he needs someone to the likes of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the mahdavi brotherhood who believe in hardline Islamic leadership with an Iron fist.  

Second, to fend off  Hashemi Rafsanjani and his reformist allies lead by Mir Hossein Mousavi,  Mehdi Karoubi, and Mohammad Khatami who are out to downgrade the role and influence of the supreme leader through constitutional reform, Khamenei knows that he needs to play tough and rough politics.  He knows that if he gives an inch the reformers will take a mile and that last mile is ultimately to get rid of him.  Thus in order to preserve his legacy, Khamenie is in no position to back down in light of the turn of the events that took place post June 12th 2009 election and the violence that ensued.  

Third,  Ahmadinejad and cohort know full well that to have the same monopoly on the economy as the previous generation of Sepah leaders enjoyed they need to maintain a foothold in politics at the national level, and therefore, to create a rift at this point in juncture with Khamenei would be strategically foolish.  And

Forth, where Mojtaba Vahedi former chief of staff to Mehdi Karoubi whom Tehran Bureau interviewed makes the mistake is where he suggests that the international community should in fact focus on human rights violations in Iran and strategically sanction the country.  If the supreme leader and Ahmadinejad are at odds then why would sanction be necessary, why can’t Khamenei simply order the removal of Ahmadinejad and in doing so hold a new, transparent and free election?   

The fact of the matter is that there is no rift and there is no feud between the two men and what Mojtaba Vahedi is saying in coded language is that the system is incapable of  modification or repair and in order to bring about fundamental change it is necessary for the international community to get involved on the side of the people of Iran who demand and deserve greater freedoms.  Sanctions, focus on human rights and a push towards democratization is what the current situation in Iran calls for without getting distracted by such sideshows.